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Confidential — investment thesis
Enter fragmented. Exit consolidated.
Manuka Skin Science is a buy-and-build platform consolidating natural skin health around East Cape Mānuka Oil and a proven anchor brand — raising capital in disciplined tranches to acquire, integrate and re-rate.
NZ$14.0m
Total staged raise (3 rounds)
4.5x
Base-case entry EBITDA multiple
11x
Base-case exit EBITDA multiple
6
Acquisitions by Year 5 (illustrative)
3–7 yrs
Dual-track exit window
Sub-scale founder brands transact at 3–6x EBITDA. Scaled, diversified natural-beauty platforms have exited at 10–14x. The spread — not a single brand's growth — is the engine of this plan.
01 — The opportunity
A large, fragmented market — and an optional adjacency one shelf over.
Within the broader ~US$155bn global skincare market, natural and organic is the fastest-growing, most defensible segment. Ingestible wellness carries the same structural gap.
Natural & organic beauty
US$45–55bn → US$100bn+
~9% CAGR to the mid-2030s
Clean beauty sub-segment
US$10.5bn → US$35bn
~9–17% CAGR, 2025→2033
Total global skincare
US$156bn → US$203bn
~3% CAGR, 2025→2033
NZ natural personal care
US$260m → US$408m
~7.8% CAGR, 2025→2031
Optional adjacency — dietary supplements
US$190–210bn → US$275–430bn
~7–10% CAGR to the early 2030s
Sources: Precedence Research; Grand View Research; Ken Research; MarketsandMarkets; PS Market Research; Statista. Figures vary materially by definition and are stated conservatively.
02 — Strategy
Four levers, working together.
01
Organic growth
Scale each acquisition into new channels; the anchor is a stable cash base.
02
Accretive M&A
Buy aligned brands below the platform's own multiple.
03
Margin expansion
Shared supply, science, e-commerce and ops lift every acquisition's margin.
04
Multiple re-rating
A diversified, science-led platform re-rates above the sum of its parts.
03 — Illustrative five-year build
Growth is acquisition-driven — the anchor holds broadly flat.
A model of the mechanics, not a forecast. Figures to be set with management.
Revenue (NZ$m)
EBITDA (NZ$m) — label shows margin %
Year
Acquisitions (cum.)
Revenue NZ$m
EBITDA NZ$m
Margin
Year 1
2
3.0
0.4
12%
Year 2
3
6.0
0.8
13%
Year 3
4
12.0
1.9
16%
Year 4
6
24.0
4.3
18%
Year 5
6
40.0
8.0
20%
04 — The moat
A defensible ingredient — plus five moats beyond it.
Highest β-triketone levels of any mānuka in the world.
20–30x more effective than tea tree oil; up to 1,000x vs. mānuka honey on gram-positive bacteria.
1,000+ published papers — a rare evidence base for a natural ingredient.
Licensed clinical programme extending mānuka toward botanical medicine (eczema).
Vertical formulation — in-house NPD via a related-party formulation studio (independent valuation required).
First-party DTC data across ~40,000 ManukaRx customers, sharpening targeting and LTV.
Off-market deal-sourcing — founder network plus a public "for founders" front door.
Retail & pharmacy relationships carried by distribution-led acquisitions.
05 — The anchor
ManukaRx — proof, not projection.
~NZ$2m
Revenue, profitable
~40,000
Customers
189,000+
Units sold
NZ / AU / export
Markets
06 — Acquisition playbook
Source, screen, acquire, integrate — then repeat.
1
Source
Founder network, the public "for founders" front door, and distressed/succession channels.
2
Screen
Against four tests: story, distribution, portfolio (incl. the wellness adjacency), or capability.
3
Acquire
Priced to be accretive; cash plus earn-out keeps founders aligned post-close.
4
Integrate
Onto shared supply, science, DTC and operations — the margin-expansion engine.
07 — Returns & exit
~6.5 turns of multiple arbitrage, before growth or synergy.
4.5x
Entry (range 3–6x)
→
11x
Exit (range 10–14x)
On ~NZ$8.0m of Year-5 EBITDA, an 11x platform multiple implies an enterprise value of roughly NZ$90m (range NZ$80–112m at 10–14x). Trilogy sold to CITIC Capital at 13.6x; beauty M&A aggregate ran ~14.9x EV/EBITDA in 2025 YTD.
Acquisitions — 55%
Integration & distribution — 20%
Brand & growth marketing — 15%
Science, IP & working capital — 10%
Indicative use of proceeds (blended across rounds)
08 — Risks & mitigants
Roll-ups fail in predictable ways. This one is built against them.
BWX — an ASX-listed natural-beauty roll-up — collapsed in 2023 after paying strategic multiples (15x for Go-To) funded with debt.
Risk
Mitigant
Acquisition pipeline
Founder-led sourcing plus a public sale front door; disciplined criteria over deal volume.
Integration execution
A defined shared-engine playbook; earn-outs keep founders engaged post-close.
Overpaying / leverage
Hard entry-multiple discipline; staged equity tied to pipeline; minimal debt (the BWX lesson).
Ingredient supply
Contracted mānuka oil supply; asset-light model avoids plantation exposure.
Regulatory / claims
Clinical work ring-fenced under licence; marketing claims kept within the evidence base.
Related-party deals
The related-party formulation studio requires disclosure and independent valuation before proceeding.
Key person
Experienced board and management; process institutionalised as the platform scales.
09 — The ask
A staged raise, tied to a qualified acquisition pipeline.
ROUND 1 · YEAR 1
NZ$2.0m
First bolt-on(s); platform, data room and IR function.
ROUND 2 · YEARS 2–3
NZ$4.0m
Two further acquisitions; AU + export distribution.
ROUND 3 · YEARS 3–4
NZ$8.0m
Two further acquisitions; scale and exit preparation.